Shakespeare wrote ten dramas, each with a different story and cast of characters. However, his tragedies follow the same five-act formula: Exposition, Rising Action, Climax, Falling Action, and Resolution. Every play, movie, and television shows from Shakespeare's time to today follows the same five-act sequence. Our culture's art and entertainment reflect our innate expectations of the hero's rise, fall, and resolution. Likewise, our expectations for the economy and financial markets are no different.
Can the Yield Curve Predict Recessions?
Our brain constantly monitors for signs of threats and triggers emotional responses to avoid them. The most primitive part of our brain controls the instinct to prevent hazards. This basic survival instinct attaches a high probability to any piece of data forecasting anything. Like the weather forecast, human beings expect predictability regarding the economy and the stock market. However, forecasting should not be considered a prediction.
The Investment Story of 2022
The first half of 2022 has been a disappointing year for every investor. At the close of Q2 2022, a 60/40 hypothetical portfolio comprised of the S&P 500 Index and Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index was down over 12%. What's been the driving force behind these investment returns, and what can we expect moving forward?
True Confessions of a Financial Advisor
As of Friday, the 29th of July, except for the NASDAQ market, the US equity markets recovered somewhat from the bear market correction. A bear market is a loss of 20% from the previous high. In the first six months of 2022, the equity market had lost over 80% of what it gained in 2021 and entered a bear market correction.
What is a Recession?
Two weeks ago, the latest Consumer Price Index data (the index that measures inflation) had risen 1.3% in June, bringing headline inflation up to 9.1% and core inflation (excludes energy and food) up to 5.9% over the last 12 months. With increases this large, it’s not surprising to know this has been the most significant 12-month increase since November of 1981. With inflation on the rise, the war in Ukraine, and the stock market in bear territory (when stocks fall at least 20% off their highs), are we doomed for a recession?
Tax Loss Harvesting: The Silver Lining of Market Downturns
With the first half of 2022 closing just a few days ago, the S&P 500 is down almost 20% year-to-date. That would rank as the worst first half of the year in over 50 years! While many tend to avoid looking at their investment account statements during times like this, market downturns present unique opportunities for investors
Rising Interest Rates, The Economy, and Your Portfolio
For the first time since December 2018, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted at its March meeting to raise the federal funds target rate range by ¼ percent to 0.25% - 0.50%. Following this initial increase, the median voting member expects seven more rate hikes in 2022 and an additional four hikes in 2023.
Russian SWIFT Sanctions and Your Portfolio
War in Ukraine
Our prayers and thoughts are with the Ukrainian people who are suffering immeasurably at the hands of the Russian military today. To characterize this as "geopolitical risk" that will impact our portfolios seems insensitive. Millions of Ukrainian people woke up today with plans to go to school and work, meet up with friends, or start vacations, and instead have bombs falling on their cities as Russia commits to war on their land.
The Behavioral Side of Inflation
During a recent financial review with a couple, we discussed inflation. The wife asked me, “So, what is cyclical inflation.” I used the term illustrating the difference between temporary, transitory inflation and built-in, cyclical inflation. It suddenly occurred to me that those are some fancy words. What do they mean in plain talk?
Social Security and Medicare Changes for 2022
The new year has begun, and with it come changes to monthly benefits and costs for Social Security and Medicare. On the positive side, Social Security recipients will see a 5.9% cost-of-living increase in their benefits, the largest since Ronald Reagan was President. Unfortunately, due to various factors, Medicare is also experiencing the most significant increase in Part B and D premiums in the program’s history.
Comparing The Current Real Estate Market to The ’08 Crisis
The US Financial Crisis of 2008 serves as one of the most memorable and devastating financial downturns in history. Regardless of your age, financial status, or area of living, the crisis likely had some impact on your life at the time. While many remember the crash in the stock market and the ensuing global recession, it’s essential to examine the underlying aspects of the real estate market which led to the build-up.
How Do Elections Impact Your Portfolio?
With the election results in Georgia, President Biden will have a majority in both the House and Senate. Half the country may be excited about this, and about half the country may be in a panic. As an investment advisory firm, we want you to understand the facts and make decisions in your best interest. Far too often, we see people make short-term decisions based on a perception of something rather than a prudent judgment based on facts.
How Does a Presidential Election Impact the Stock Market?
Should long term investors focus on the upcoming presidential election from an investment standpoint? Over the coming months, there will be no shortage of opinions on market movements as election day approaches. This media-driven rhetoric can influence people’s perceptions between the administration in power and its influence on the markets.
Loss Aversion: Financial Behavior to Avoid
I recently celebrated my 45th birthday. Admittedly, celebrating anything while social distancing is considerably less fun, but it was still a great time to reflect on life in general and how the first 45 years have gone so far. Of course, being in finance, thoughts also turned to all of the various market events I have witnessed in that period. The tech bubble bursting in 2000, the 9/11 terrorist attacks, the 2008 financial crisis, and now a pandemic. It seems that once-in-a-lifetime black swan events have happened four times and counting in my career as a financial professional.
Does more information help us make better decisions?
Where is the wisdom we have lost in knowledge?
Where is the knowledge we have lost in information?
T.S. Eliot, The Rock, 1932
What does Eliot’s critique of modernity, which holds that we are losing something valuable in our lives as we pursue technical progress, have anything to do with investing and personal financial planning?
Is Inflation Good or Bad?
Inflation has been a popular topic of late.
In his press conference to announce the Fed’s decision to cut interest rates following its July meeting, Fed Chair Powell cited “muted inflation pressures” as justification for action.
However, retaliatory tariffs between the U.S. and China have raised concerns this could spark inflationary pressures as consumers are forced to pay higher prices.
What Does Fed Independence Mean?
When Congress passed the Federal Reserve Act in 1913, it established the Federal Reserve System with the initial objective of supporting a fragile banking system. In the over 100 years since it was first established, the responsibilities of the Federal Reserve System (or the Fed for short) have expanded to include several broader responsibilities, such as fostering a sound banking system and a healthy economy. One thing that hasn’t changed is the Fed is an independent government agency that is accountable to the public and Congress to act as the Central Bank of the United States.
Measuring Consumer Confidence
As we highlighted in our post “Anatomy of the U.S. Economy,” consumer spending accounts for nearly 70% of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP). Current consumer spending, as well as future spending, is highly influenced by consumer expectations for the economy.
It’s Been a While Since We Had a Recession
The U.S. economy is on the verge of breaking the record for the longest stretch of economic expansion in U.S. history. Since the U.S. economy hit bottom in June 2009 following the Great Recession, it has been on a slow and steady recovery that has it on the brink of surpassing the expansion from March 1991 to March 2001 as the longest in U.S. history.